No to the Israel/ Iran War – analysis from Socialists in Israel – Palestine

Guest articles from Socialist Struggle Movement Israel- Palestine

Yasha Marmer

Stop the war of deception, bring down the Israeli death government !

Netanyahu and Trump’s arrogant campaign for regime change in Iran is expanding the scale of the catastrophe !

• Hundreds killed in Iran, escalation of the slaughter in Gaza, and dozens killed within the Green Line 
• Trump threatens direct military intervention 
• The gates of hell will not close without a struggle  
• Build a cross-community, cross-border protest to stop the bloodbath led by the Netanyahu–Trump gang 

Massive traffic jams were documented in Tehran, as residents fled the bombed capital, amid reports of hundreds killed and widespread destruction — scenes reminiscent of the escape from the bombings unleashed by Israel’s government on Lebanon. 

In Israel, while the cross-national death toll within the Green Line is already estimated in the dozens, working-class families from a range of national communities are frequently crammed day and night into public shelters filled to capacity — and that’s only if an accessible public shelter even exists. In Arab-Palestinian towns, there are virtually no proper designated protected spaces. 

Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, reports indicate an escalation of military strikes as part of the war of annihilation, with particular reports from Khan Younis of dozens killed by Israeli occupation forces while waiting in line for basic supplies. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem as well, residents are facing a new phase of brutal aggression by the occupation forces in the shadow of the Israel–Iran war. 

Netanyahu’s capitalist death government has launched an all-out war on Iran, fuelled by hubris, with nearly unrestrained demonstrative attacks, involving wave after wave of Israeli bombings of what they refer to as “power targets”. At the same time, the counterattack from the Tehran regime — while clearly asymmetrical — has included sporadic yet unprecedentedly powerful missile salvos. These have shut down the oil refineries in Haifa Bay (three workers were killed in the incident), caused severe damage through direct hits on the Weizmann Institute, and struck the Kirya “Defence” Ministry base in Tel Aviv, inflicting severe harm in densely populated areas. 

US intelligence: No evidence supporting Israeli government’s claims 

The Israeli government’s attempt — backed by the leaders of the establishment “opposition” in the Knesset — to portray the catastrophe it is creating as a “defensive war” is a typical deception, laced with security-driven demagoguery. Once again, this is a war of deception — not intended to protect the Israeli public or to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, but to entrench and strengthen the position of the region’s sole nuclear power, while advancing the interests of Israeli capital, including the ‘normalisation’ of the occupation and oppression of the Palestinians. Once again, the death government’s claims of a “no-choice” war do not hold water. 

According to a report published yesterday (Tuesday) by CNN, US intelligence assessed that the Iranian regime has not yet taken practical steps toward developing nuclear weapons, and that in any case, it would allegedly require another three years to potentially produce such a weapon. This contradicts the Israeli government’s claims that the surprise attack was meant to thwart Tehran’s immediate and rapid progress toward a military nuclear point of no return. 

When Trump was asked about a similar assessment presented to the US Congress in March by US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard — stating that American intelligence agencies do not believe Iran is building nuclear weapons — he simply replied: “I don’t care what she said”. 

The CNN report also included an assessment by a US administration official that the Israeli assault would succeed in delaying Iran’s nuclear programme by no more than a few months. “Israel can temporarily cripple the facilities, but if you really want to dismantle them — it requires either a US military operation or a deal”, said Brett McGurk, a former diplomat who served under both the Trump and Biden administrations, in an interview with CNN. 

The death government clearly prefers a “US military operation” over any kind of agreement. Trump, whose administration continues to ship heavy bombs to the Israeli Air Force, is now threatening direct military intervention by US imperialism — with fighter jets and missiles. Not in order to invade and occupy Iran as the US did in neighbouring Iraq with a large-scale ground invasion, but in an attempt to force a humiliating agreement on the ayatollah regime, while seeking to destabilise or even topple it. 

Speaking with reporters on his flight to Washington, Trump declared that he was “not too much in the mood to negotiate” and that the war would end once Tehran reaches the point of “giving up entirely.” His statement came after he abruptly left the G7 summit in Canada, called on residents of Tehran to evacuate immediately, and spread panic across the region about another catastrophic escalation. When French President Macron attempted to calm tensions by speculating that the American president was on his way to coordinate a ceasefire, Trump dismissed the idea and retorted: “He has no idea why I’m on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a ceasefire. Much bigger than that.” 

Trump wants to impose a deal that serves his own objectives — one that, from his perspective, would retroactively justify the green light he gave Netanyahu to launch the offensive, and demonstrate his ability to force the Iranian regime into submission — which could, in turn, strengthen his hand in future bargaining with Moscow and Beijing. 

Trump threatens direct military intervention 

The Israeli death government is drunk on power. It’s operating with broad backing from the Trump administration, vocal support of Germany’s chancellor Merz who’s referred to the war against Iran as  the “dirty work for all of us” — and even with signals of potential willingness to intervene militarily alongside it from the governments of Britain and France. 

Under these circumstances, the Israeli assault continues to escalate with provocative strikes on both military and civilian infrastructure, as well as on strategic assets and regime symbols in Iran — including attacks on some of the world’s largest oil and gas fields. In one of the acts of state terrorism, television studios in Tehran were bombed, with media workers still inside. The death government has threatened to bring down residential buildings in Tehran, after already bombing such buildings from the earliest hours of the assault as part of a wide-ranging assassination campaign, which also included the use of car bombs in the heart of Iran’s capital. 

The Israeli regime seeks to inflict as crushing a defeat as possible on the Tehran regime, which it ultimately aims to replace with a friendly alternative dictatorship. 

A scenario of direct military intervention by US imperialism would widen the scale of attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and other strategic infrastructure beyond the Israeli regime’s own military capabilities — such as deep strikes on the Fordow nuclear facility — and the attempt to advance a ‘regime change’ vector would strengthen. Even so, at this stage, that goal does not appear to be within concrete reach. 

Moscow and Beijing — for whom destabilisation of the Iranian regime and damage to its assets would be a blow to their regional interests — are, for now, largely forced to watch from the sidelines. They are not currently in a position to intervene militarily in any significant way. 

The Iranian regime was caught off guard by the scale of firepower and has suffered hits to strategic assets, but at this stage, it is likely that direct US military involvement with overwhelming aerial firepower would lead to an expansion of the regional war — including an Iranian counter-strike targeting US and others’ interests in the region, and potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz — developing into a drawn-out military escalation that could spiral out of control. 

This scenario is clearly raising concerns among ruling classes both in the region and globally. Some of them would prefer to avoid such destabilising developments through a deal that would bring the current escalation phase to an end and resume negotiations between Iran and the imperialist powers. 

In interviews on Monday, Netanyahu ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire and even threatened to assassinate Khamenei, which in his view “would end the conflict.” Trump has “vetoed” this idea thus far, considering the ripple effects such an event could unleash in terms of retaliatory actions and destabilising regional consequences. 

Ministers of death dance on the blood 

The Israeli government’s attempt to disguise its campaign of state terrorism against the masses in Iran by claiming that striking regime symbols in Tehran promotes liberation from tyranny has been exposed as a cheap lie — even by Defence Minister Katz’s own threats to make Tehran’s residents “pay a blood price.” After realising that his words blatantly exposed the deception, he clarified: “The residents of Tehran will have to pay the price of dictatorship and evacuate from neighbourhoods where there will be a need to strike regime targets and security infrastructure.” 

Meanwhile, the residents of Haifa and Tel Aviv, the Galilee and the Negev, and other areas “will have to pay the price of dictatorship” — that of the Israeli occupation and capitalist rule — as they are trapped among “regime targets and security infrastructure” embedded within or near population centres. The Iranian counterattack has already resulted in deadly strikes on residential buildings in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, including in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Bat Yam, and Petah Tikva, as well as on homes and buildings in Tamra and in the north. For the Israeli government, this escalation is part of a deliberate plan. 

On Sunday afternoon, Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz left their atomic bunker for a photo-op at the site of the missile strike in Bat Yam — to dance on the blood, play on public fear, and exploit the shock and grief in order to justify further escalation in the all-out war they declared on Iran. 

Eight people were killed in Bat Yam early on Sunday morning, including a young boy and girl. Many buildings in the area are now slated for demolition. In Petah Tikva, an elderly couple was killed while sheltering in a reinforced security room, along with another man and woman. In Tamra, four women from one family were killed the day before, and at the Haifa oil refineries, three workers were also killed. The government knew in advance that this would be the outcome and even factored in the likelihood of much higher casualties. 

Netanyahu, Katz, and the rest of the “death cabinet” ministers were evacuated from the prime minister’s office on the eve of the assault to a secret underground facility in Jerusalem, where they were briefed that their decision to launch a war with Iran would result in the firing back of hundreds of ballistic missiles, likely claiming the lives of 800 to 4,000 people in Israel — alongside thousands in Iran, who were probably not even mentioned in the briefing. The ministers listened — and voted unanimously in favour. Then they read religious prayer, shook hands and hugged. Ben Gvir hugged Chief of Staff Zamir. Minister Elkin and others joked that from now on, Elkin would be responsible not only for reconstruction in the North and the Negev but also in the central region. They laughed. 

“The damage to the home front is severe… We were excellently prepared,” boasted a “senior official” in the death cabinet. “The small cabinet prepared for this for a full year. There were countless meetings, and we managed to deceive everyone and let them believe the meetings were just about the hostages, but we were also discussing the Iranian threat.” In other words, the death cabinet deliberately misled the Israeli public with sham meetings about the fate of the hostages — whom it continues to endanger through its massacre of Gaza residents — while cooking up yet another massive catastrophe. 

A struggle to uproot the root cause of the crisis 

“If anyone asks why Netanyahu struck Iran now after 20 years of not doing so, the answer is the makeup of the ‘seven’ [the small cabinet]” boasted the same senior official. “It’s Israel Katz who pushed for the attack, along with Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.” 

However, responsibility for the ongoing catastrophe also lies with Yair Golan, Lapid, and Gantz — who supported and united behind the Israeli death government’s military assault on Iran from the moment it began and helped it for months in preparing public opinion. The decision to launch a full-scale war on Iran stemmed from the broader aspirations of Israel’s ruling class: to assert regional hegemony under the patronage of US imperialism, to maintain exclusive possession of nuclear weapons, to normalise the oppression of the Palestinian masses and the occupation regime, and to remove barriers to Israeli capital in the region. At the same time, the regional war once again underscores the destructive role of American imperialism in the Middle East. 

The urgent task is to build a cross-community, cross-border protest movement to immediately stop the Israel–Iran war, end the catastrophe of the war of annihilation against Gaza, and overthrow Netanyahu’s  government. But such a struggle must be rooted in opposition to weapons of mass destruction held by any state in the region, as part of a broader fight against the capitalist and imperialist system — a system built on inequality and oppression, and which fuels arms races and power struggles between regional and global powers.  

Organise a broad, cross-community protest of working people, refusal and strike actions, demanding:  

• Stop the Israel–Iran war. Stop the war of annihilation in Gaza. Overthrow the death government! 
• Yes to a cross-community and cross-border struggle to halt the war, bring down the government, and rebuild with compensation for all — without discrimination. Seize vital resources from the control of the capitalist elite and place them under public ownership and democratic oversight, for the sake of social investment. 
• Workers’ organisations and neighbourhood initiatives must demand an emergency operation to deploy protective shelters in towns and neighbourhoods based on need, without discrimination, as well as immediate funding to restore and open all unfit public shelters for use. 
• Cancel the cuts to the “Emergency Center for Arab Society.” Ensure full and equal funding for Arab municipalities. Massively expand investment in social welfare services. End the austerity policies designed to bankroll the war machine! 
• No more gambling with human lives for the sake of market profits — cancel the failing “Tama 38” plan, which ties building reinforcements and safe rooms to the profit motives of real estate developers and progresses at a snail’s pace. 
• Build new public shelters and implement broad protection plans in all regions — funded by expropriating the massive wartime profits of banks and corporations that have looted the public. 
• Yes to a struggle for equality, welfare, and personal safety — Against capitalist rule, occupation, and imperialism, and for socialist change! 

Shahar Benhorin

The government of death of Netanyahu and the far-right has declared total war on Iran, opening a new phase of extreme aggravation in regional confrontation — a further destructive turning point, with decisive material and political backing by the Trump administration and with support from the establishment “opposition” in Israel’s Knesset [parliament].

The unprecedented military offensive show of force, initiated by the region’s sole nuclear power in the early hours of Friday at night, has so far focused on striking parts of Iran’s nuclear programme infrastructure and military installations — including assassinations of the senior command, among them the Chief of Staff and the Commander of the “Revolutionary Guards” — while also not hesitating to target civilian sites. Residential buildings have been bombed, and members of Iran’s scientific cadre have been executed in an act of state terrorism. While Tehran’s two limited missile barrages launched towards the State of Israel in April and October 2024 ostensibly focused on military targets, it may now attempt to ‘equalise’ costs by directing fire at the civilian population.

This is part of the catastrophic military campaign launched by this government — following the surprise attack led by Hamas on 7 October 2023 — with massive support from the Israeli ruling class, backed by western governments, to coldly exploit a historic opportunity to reshape the region in line with a horrific vision of the Israeli rule of capital and occupation in the spirit of the far-right.

The objective of the extensive offensive is not merely to disrupt Iran’s nuclear programme to strip a rival regional power of potential military capabilities. Rather, in a generalised manner, to also complete an ongoing move since 7 October to alter the regional balance of power. That, fundamentally, in pursuit of regional hegemony, the normalisation of occupation and the brutal repression of the Palestinians, improving business for Israeli capital and particularly the arms industry, and demonstrating ability to serve as a ‘forward outpost’ for western imperialist interests in the region.

While both sides in this confrontation are reactionary regimes each serving a narrow oligarchy, with neither playing any progressive role in the interests of the masses in the region — this is not a symmetrical conflict. Rather, it is aggression from the government of death of Israeli capitalism — the most dangerous force in the regional system at present — backed by the world’s strongest imperialist power, with the most reactionary global influence.

Netanyahu, accustomed to manipulative rhetoric that desecrates the memory of the Jewish Holocaust, declared that the offensive against Iran was nothing less than an act to prevent a “second Holocaust”. Meanwhile, mass atrocities, including crimes of ethnic cleansing and genocide, are intensifying in Gaza under the guise of ‘security’ demagoguery in the service of occupation and colonial settlements, flagrantly also trampling the lives of hostages but also the future of the region — also in the regional context, the military campaign led by Netanyahu’s gang was never designed at any stage to, nor is it capable of, making the region ‘safer’. On the contrary.

Chain reaction danger

Regardless of the scale of retaliatory actions carried out by the Iranian regime and its allies in the ‘Axis of Resistance’, however weakened the axis may be, the event is unfolding, and its full consequences could still escalate into a series of regional and global shocks — including accelerating a crisis in the global economy. Forces of the Iranian regime and its allies may target energy facilities and other infrastructure in the region, potentially even blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The US military and various forces in the region may yet intervene directly. There could be further extensive harm to the civilian population in Iran, further horrors inflicted against Palestinians amid the regional turmoil, harm to Israeli civilians, and even worldwide associated attacks may occur against Jewish and other people.

The Israeli government has employed tactics similar to those it used in its attack on Lebanon to weaken Hezbollah militarily, however, this time, the target is a state, and on a massive scale. The Iranian regime cannot afford not to respond forcefully to such a strategic blow, especially following the setbacks suffered by the ‘Axis of Resistance’ under its leadership since September 2024. It risks appearing powerless, fueling internal divisions, and facing an escalation of assertive challenges in local and regional power struggles — potentially reaching existential threats. Pressure on the regime to ‘take revenge’ is set to be immense.

The fact that Hezbollah in Lebanon, still recovering from a significant organisational setback, has so far limited its response to condemning Israeli aggression does not necessarily mean it will not later take part in some form of retaliation — potentially, Hezbollah still has the capability to inflict a heavier infrastructural damage compared with the isolated Houthi missile strikes. Although, it is likely that its leadership currently fears the military and political costs involved.

The Israeli offensive has never been intended nor capable of fully eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme. The research centre in Isfahan was hit, but the extent of the destruction at Natanz — Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility — remains unclear, as does the impact on the parallel enrichment facility in Fordow, which is carved into a mountain. In any case, from a technical standpoint, even severe damage may ultimately result in no more than a disruption lasting a few years in the development of the nuclear programme.

One of the pretexts used by the Israeli regime in its propaganda to justify the offensive, framed as a “preemptive strike”, is the claim regarding an acceleration of the development of Iranian weapons systems relevant to producing a nuclear bomb, despite no clear evidence being presented to support this assertion. Moreover, it is evident that planning for the offensive in various aspects, which involves forces on the ground in Iran itself, had been ongoing for a long time regardless.

To begin with, previous phases of the Israeli military campaign, particularly the assassination of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, spurred a wing of the Iranian regime that views a military nuclear programme as a strategic defence mechanism against military aggression. Netanyahu himself admitted that he had originally ordered preparations for the offensive as early as November 2024, just weeks after the assassination of Nasrallah, claiming: “It was clear to me, as well as to others, that with the breaking of the Iranian axis — which was one base for Israel’s destruction — Iran would rapidly advance its nuclear programme”. Now, this offensive is pushing the Iranian regime more forcefully to refine its efforts to restore capabilities and ultimately achieve such an objective.

Netanyahu’s appeal to the masses in Iran with the hypocritical claim that the war is only against the regime oppressing them, could just as easily have been made, also hypocritically, by the Iranian regime to those living under Israeli rule around last year’s missile barrages towards the State of Israel. However, Netanyahu’s ‘bear hug’ towards the masses in Iran reflects opposite aspirations to those expressed in the mass uprising of 2022 in Iran, or within recent labour struggles and social protests — including the truck drivers’ strike in dozens of cities in the days prior to the offensive regarding wages and the cost of living.

Symbolically, on the day preceding the offensive, Netanyahu hosted Argentine President Javier Milei, an enemy of workers and the poor. Netanyahu’s bear hug to the public in Iran represents the ambition of the Israeli ruling class for regime change in Iran, to replace the current rival dictatorship with one more friendly to its interests – akin to the dictatorial monarchy of the Shah, which was originally overthrown in a revolution before the counter-revolutionary Khomeinist takeover.

Although the offensive may undermine the political stability of the Tehran regime, in fact, as the state of emergency allows the Israeli government of death to ‘put on hold’ local protests against it, in Iran it provides the regime with a political opportunity to rally support against external aggression and even intensify incitement and crackdowns on local voices of protest.

International pressures

The extraordinary resolution passed by representatives of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — with a Chinese-Russian opposition — at the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), just one day before the Israeli offensive, condemned Tehran for alleged violations of nuclear oversight commitments, providing the Israeli government with additional propaganda justification to launch its offensive — although the Israeli military system had already been placed on alert awaiting orders as of Monday 9 June.

Unlike the tactical rounds of attacks carried out by the Israeli regime on Iranian territory in April and October 2024, the initiation of a broad offensive, which risks spiralling into an uncontrollable regional military escalation, while picking praise from Trump, has attracted colder responses from other ‘western’ powers. In fact, Trump himself sought to publicly downplay Washington’s responsibility for the offensive, as he is taking into account potential retaliatory actions against US military bases in the region and against other US imperialist interests, including expectations from Arab regimes. Simultaneously, the British government distanced itself from any involvement, hinting that it would not assist this time in thwarting an Iranian counter-offensive.

The Jordanian monarchy intercepted part of the drone barrage launched towards Israel, ostensibly out of concern for potential falls within its territory, yet it condemned Israeli aggression. The Egyptian regime also issued a condemnation. Although the central pro-US Arab regimes in the region are interested in weakening Tehran’s power, they are nonetheless concerned about the regional and domestic ramifications of a military spiral.

Tehran’s lack of an immediate response in the initial phase, including the absence of air defence, not only reflected the impact of the early Israeli bombing in Iran on 26 October but also revealed an element of surprise. This was despite a US intelligence report earlier in the year warning that an attack was likely within the first half of 2025, and despite Trump issuing a two-month ultimatum in an attempt to coerce a deal from Tehran — which now, more than before, would amount to a transparent capitulation agreement. The US administration may yet be dragged into direct intervention in the conflict, but, unlike Netanyahu, it is still playing with the idea that the military offensive could be used as leverage to extract concessions from Tehran.

Trump, who originally violated the previous nuclear agreement brokered under US sponsorship, also collaborated in a media deception ahead of the Israeli offensive — pretending that negotiations between Washington and Tehran would resume on Sunday. Even when the administration initially ‘vetoed’ an Israeli offensive plan in May, preferring to seek a deal with Tehran due to concerns over escalating complications, it simultaneously delivered a massive airlift of heavy weaponry, previously withheld under Biden’s administration, thus aiding the Israeli regime’s practical preparations for the military offensive scenario.

It should be noted that in any case, agreements such as the nuclear deal signed during the Obama administration in 2015 primarily represent an attempt by global imperialist powers to impose a diplomatic framework of (unequal) rules on dangerous power struggles between regional forces. From the outset, such agreements do not resolve the fundamental factors driving these conflicts, that in themselves fuel a hazardous arms race.

The backing of the Government of Death by the ‘opposition’ — and the need for struggle measures

The crisis within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition a short while before the offensive, centred around legislation for drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military to reinforce the war of extermination and occupation, was resolved through a combination of the understanding by all coalition parties that public resentment towards the government could translate into a serious electoral blow, and their understanding that the military campaign could also allow them to reap political benefits from images of ‘military successes’.

However, the offensive has only just begun, and it remains unclear how much, and for how long, they will be able to cultivate support based on such superficial impressions. The loyal alignment of the establishment Israeli “opposition” — led by Yair Golan, Yair Lapid, and Benny Gantz — in once again praising a dramatic military move by the government of death underscores that this is not merely a narrow political manoeuvre to ‘save Netanyahu’. Rather, it is a geo-strategic move aligned with broader ambitions within the Israeli ruling class. Yet, even they will eventually distance themselves from their de facto political support for the government as the offensive becomes more entangled or as time passes.

Under the cover of the offensive, the Israeli government of death has tightened the siege on the West Bank, while within the Green Line, it has initiated a new phase of bans on gatherings and the freezing of protest events. The leadership of the General Histadrut trade union federation, much like the establishment opposition parties, has once again aligned itself with the government of death, and for war at the expense of the future of working people from all communities. We are in a volatile phase, and it remains unclear how the coming days and weeks will unfold. But locally, as globally, what is needed now is the advancement of a struggle with a strong and clear voice against the deteriorating of the region deeper into the spiral of blood and the fantasies of Trump and the Israeli far right.

• Yes to building a broad protest movement, protest refusal against the war machine, and strike actions. Organise a democratic, cross-community protest movement led by ordinary working people, with no involvement of capitalists, generals, or establishment parties’ politicians.
• No to the Israel–Iran war, an end to the war of extermination in Gaza, overthrow the ‘government of death’ — and all its policies.
• Against the hubris of a murderous gang trampling the future of all of us with deceiving murderous wars, mass atrocities, and suffocating austerity, there’s a need to strengthen the cross-border struggle to stop the war machine and fight for equality, welfare, and personal security.
• No to the rule of capital, occupation, and imperialism, yes to socialist transformation in the region.